Abstract: Scientific prediction of potential grain production for country or area can provide the theory basis for reasonable formulation of approaches to ensure increase in grain production and food safety. The author analyzed the capital yield of rice, maize and wheat as well as the sustainable development of grain production capacity in Chongqing and the balance of grain supply and demand based on the data from 2000 to 2010, and used the method of multivariate linear regression and grey model. The ability of sustainable development of grain production is strong in Chongqing, its self-sufficiency rate of grain is gradually improved. The grain production can meet the demand in Chongqing in the future.