Welcome to Chinese Agricultural Science Bulletin,

Chinese Agricultural Science Bulletin ›› 2015, Vol. 31 ›› Issue (10): 232-239.doi: 10.11924/j.issn.1000-6850.casb14100074

Special Issue: 农业气象

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WRF Area Rainfall Forecast Verification of Wujiang River Watershed

Tang Yanjing1, Peng Fang2, Shang Yuanyuan1, Hu Yuewen3   

  1. (1Meteorological Service Center of Guizhou Province, Guiyang 550002;2Meteorological Station of Guizhou Province, Guiyang 550002;3Meteorological Information Center of Guizhou Porvince, Guiyang 550002)
  • Received:2014-10-21 Revised:2015-03-18 Accepted:2015-02-25 Online:2015-05-05 Published:2015-05-05

Abstract: The paper aims to verify the accuracy of WRF area rainfall product of Wujiang River Watershed, understand the character of WRF rainfall forecast, and propose interpretation method. WRF area rainfall product of Wujiang River Watershed in flood seasons from 2010 to 2013 was verified through methods of clear-rain verification, classified verification and forecast departure. It was found that the clear-rain forecast was quite reliable. Classified verification showed that WRF forecast was better in no-rain and especially small-rain level, but the result was not so good for over moderate-rain level. In levels above moderate-rain, forecast departures were mostly smaller than the real, and rarely close to the real. As rainfall became heavier, the departures became lager. WRF performed badly in heavy precipitation and passably in moderate-rain level. The ensemble forecast was related better to the real, which was more close to the normal.