[1] Lorenz E N.A study of the predictability of a 28-variable atmosphere model[ J] . Tellus,1965,17(3):321-333.
[2] Epstein E S. Stochastic dynamic prediction[J] . Tellus,1969, 21( 6) : 739-759.
[3] Leith C E. Theoretical skill of Monte Carlo forecasts. Mon. Wea. Rev . , 1974, 102: 409-418.
[4] Mullen S L, Du J. Monte Carlo forecasts of explosive cyclogenesis with a limited ?area, mesoscale model. Preprints, 10thConference on Numerical Weather Prediction, Portland, Oregon, Amer. Meteor. Soc. , 1994. 638-640.
[5] Stensrud D J, Bao J, Warner T. U sing initial condition and model physics perturbation in short?range ensemble simulations of mesoscale connective system. Mon. Wea Rev . , 2000, 128: 2077- 2107.
[6] Mylne K R, Evans R E, Clark R T. M ulti ?model multi?analysis ensemble forecasting in quasi?operational medium rangeforecasting. submitted to Quart. J . Roy . Meteor. Soc. , 2000.
[7]钟琦.集合预报基础知识[Z].北京：中国气象局气象干部培训学院,2015年9月.
[8] Mullen S L, Du J. Monte Carlo forecasts of explosive cyclogenesis with a limited area, mesoscale model. Preprints, 10thConference on Numerical Weather Prediction, Portland, Oregon, Amer. Meteor. Soc. 1994. 638-640.
[9] Stensrud D J, Bao J, Warner T. U sing initial condition and model physics perturbation in short-range ensemble simulations of mesoscale connective system. Mon. Wea Rev . 2000, 128: 2077- 2107.
[10] Mylne K R, Evans R E, Clark R T. M ulti-model multi-analysis ensemble forecasting in quasi-operational medium range forecasting. submitted to Quart. J . Roy . Meteor. Soc. 2000.
[11]林良勋.集合预报系统及其产品应用综述[J].广东气象.200130(4).44-46
[12]钟琦.集合预报基础产品[Z].北京：中国气象局气象干部培训学院,2015年9月.
[13]章国材.中短期天气集合预报问题[J].气象.2004.30(4).3-5
[14]蔡其发.中期数值天气预报的集合预报实验[J].气候与环境研究.1999.4(4).365-374
[15]马严枝郭媛媛等.多个数值预报产品对山西3次强降水过程预报性能的对比分析[J].中国农学通报.2015.31(32).161-173
[16]杜钧.集合预报的现状和前景[J].应用气象学报. 2002.13(1).16-26
[17] Buizza R. Potential forecast skill of ensemble prediction and spread and skill distributions of the ECMWF ensemble pre-diction system. Mon. Wea Rev. 1997, 125: 99- 119.
[18]金荣花.李维京.孙照渤.集合预报产品释用方法的研究[J].南京气象学院学报. 2002.25(4).442-448
[19]杨学胜.根据天气类型划分欧洲中期天气预报中心的集合预报产品[J].气象学报. 2001.59(2).173-182
[20]康志明.代刊.秦华锋等.集合预报产品在国家级中期预报业务中的应用[Z].北京：中国气象局气象干部培训学院,2015年9月
|
