In this paper, the integrated model of natural disaster prediction was put forward，in which, nonlinear model was used to simulate the trend, sine curve to fit the cyclical change and Markov chain to depict random distribution. Based on the data of the forest fire disaster areas obtained from Jianyang city, Fujian province, the dynamic change of destroyed area by the forest fir was simulated and predicted by the integrate model，and the results were satisfied．It is proved by theory and practice that the integrated model of natural disaster prediction can quantitative analysis disaster generate time dynamic, offering the reliable information for the decision of disaster recovery．
