Abstract:

By conducting the risk zoning of disaster damage of double-cropping rice yields in Guangxi, this research aims to provide significant scientific support for disaster prevention and reduction in rice production and regional development planning. Utilizing statistical yield data from 98 counties and districts in Guangxi from 2005 to 2021, the relative meteorological yield was obtained through a trend yield separation method. An index for yield disaster damage risk was constructed by using the average yield reduction rate, the coefficient of variation of yield reduction rate, and the probability of different yield reduction risks as evaluation factors. Based on this risk index, the risk zoning of disaster damage of double-cropping rice yields in Guangxi was carried out. (1) Most areas of early rice in the region were in low-risk zones, with southern counties of Guilin, Rong'an and southern counties of Liuzhou, Tianlin in Baise, and Ningming and Pingxiang in Chongzuo being in medium-risk zones, while Longzhou in Chongzuo, Yongfu and Lipu in Guilin were in high-risk zones; (2) most areas of late rice in the region were in low-risk zones, with the south of Hechi, the east of Baise, Chongzuo, the north of Nanning, Qinzhou, Beihai, the east of Guigang, Wuzhou, Yulin, and Gongcheng in Guilin being in medium-risk zones, while Longzhou in Chongzuo, Pingguo in Baise, Shanglin in Nanning, Gangnan District in Qinzhou, and Beiliu in Yulin were in high-risk zones. During the study period, the main meteorological factors causing high and medium yield loss risks for early rice in the northern region of Guangxi were spring low temperatures, cold rain, and flood-related events. For early rice in the southwestern region of Guangxi, the primary meteorological factors causing high and medium yield loss risks were high-temperature heat damage and drought. In some western areas of Guangxi, the main meteorological factors causing high and medium yield loss risks for late rice were autumn cold dew wind. Due to climate warming, the correlation between cold dew wind and late rice yield loss was not significant during the study period. In regions at medium to high risk of yield loss in double-cropping rice, the focus should be on identifying the main meteorological factors responsible for disasters and implementing corresponding disaster prevention measures. The research results provide a scientific basis for disaster prevention and mitigation, the development of agricultural insurance, and relevant scientific research of double-cropping rice in Guangxi.

Key words: Guangxi, double-cropping rice, meteorological yield, disaster damage, risk regionalization, agricultural meteorological disasters