Abstract:

Climate change exacerbates the uncertainty of crop yield changes. The study aims to find out the key periods and key meteorological factors affecting the production of oil sunflower, providing data support for ensuring high and stable yield of oil sunflower in Hetao area of Inner Mongolia. In this paper, the oil sunflower yield, growth period and meteorological data from 2005 to 2024 of Bayannaoer Agricultural Meteorological Experimental Station were selected. The linear regression method was used to separate the meteorological yield from the actual yield, and the correlation analysis was carried out with the meteorological factors in each period of the whole growth period of oil sunflower. The key period and key meteorological factors of oil sunflower production affected by meteorological conditions in Hetao area of Inner Mongolia were obtained. The results showed that there was a positive correlation between sunshine hours and oil sunflower yield in early June (sowing-emergence stage); in early July (inflorescence formation period), sunshine was the main factor affecting the yield of oil sunflower; in August (flowering and filling stages), precipitation and sunshine were the key factors; in early September (mature period), temperature was the key factor. Therefore, based on the agricultural production practice of oil sunflower, key suggestions for meteorological services are proposed to provide a scientific basis for high and stable yields of oil sunflower in the Hetao region.

Key words: Hetao Area, meteorological factors, sunflower, yield model, forecast service