Impact of Climate Change on Maize Growth Period and Yield in Xihe County

doi:10.11924/j.issn.1000-6850.casb2026-0269

Abstract

Abstract:

To investigate the characteristics of climate change in Xihe County, Gansu Province, and explore its impact on maize growth stages and yield, this study analyzed meteorological and maize observation data from 1991 to 2025. Univariate linear regression, correlation analysis, and climate contribution rate analysis were applied to systematically analyze changes in key meteorological elements during maize growth stages and their effects on growth duration and yield. The findings indicate: (1) Over the past 35 years, the climate during the maize growing season in Xihe County has shown a warming and moistening trend. The average temperature has significantly increased at a rate of 0.5℃ per decade (P<0.05). Although precipitation showed an increasing trend (19.9 mm per decade), it was not significant. Sunshine duration has significantly decreased at a rate of 39.2 hours per decade (P<0.05). (2) Influenced by climate change, maize emergence, milk stage, and maturity have significantly advanced, while the whole growth duration has significantly shortened (-4.5 days/decade, P<0.05). Correlation analysis revealed a significant negative correlation between whole growth duration and average temperature (R=−0.39, P<0.05), while correlations with precipitation and sunshine duration were not significant. Water and light factors significantly influenced only specific growth stages: emergence showed a significant negative correlation with precipitation (R=−0.42, P<0.05), and adequate rainfall promoting earlier emergence; while tasseling exhibited a significant negative correlation with sunshine duration (R=−0.45, P<0.05), suggesting that insufficient sunshine may delay tasseling. (3) Actual maize yields showed a significant downward trend from 1991 to 2025, with considerable meteorological yield variability. Key factors limiting meteorological yield included insufficient precipitation during tasseling, insufficient sunshine duration during maturity, and excessive precipitation during maturity. On this basis, it is recommended that local producers in Xihe County should select and breed maize varieties with longer growing seasons and heat tolerance. Special attention should be paid to preventing drought during the tasseling stage and continuous rainy weather during the ripening stage, and measures such as supplemental irrigation and timely drainage should be taken to ensure stable yields.

Key words: climate change, maize, growth stage, yield, Xihe County

CLC Number:

LI Chunyan, XUE Yao, JIANG Yifan, NAN Hongjie, HU Xingyu. Impact of Climate Change on Maize Growth Period and Yield in Xihe County[J]. Chinese Agricultural Science Bulletin, 2026, 42(18): 133-140.

Figures/Tables 10

References 31

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	出苗期	拔节期	抽雄期	乳熟期	成熟期	全育期
平均气温/(℃/10a)	0.5^*	0.4^*	0.4^*	0.5^*	0.6^*	0.5^*
降水量/(mm/10a)	9.0^*	-5.2	6.5	3.2	3.2	19.9
日照时数/(h/10a)	5.2	-8.4	-11.3	-11.4	-12.8^*	-39.2^*

	出苗期	拔节期	抽雄期	乳熟期	成熟期	全育期
平均气温/(℃/10a)	0.5^*	0.4^*	0.4^*	0.5^*	0.6^*	0.5^*
降水量/(mm/10a)	9.0^*	-5.2	6.5	3.2	3.2	19.9
日照时数/(h/10a)	5.2	-8.4	-11.3	-11.4	-12.8^*	-39.2^*

玉米生育期	出苗期	拔节期	抽雄期	乳熟期	成熟期	全育期
趋势/(d/10a)	-2.8^*	-2.0	0.00	-3.1^*	-5.3^*	-4.5^*
R²	0.17	0.07	0.00	0.12	0.27	0.33

玉米生育期	出苗期	拔节期	抽雄期	乳熟期	成熟期	全育期
趋势/(d/10a)	-2.8^*	-2.0	0.00	-3.1^*	-5.3^*	-4.5^*
R²	0.17	0.07	0.00	0.12	0.27	0.33

	出苗期	拔节期	抽雄期	乳熟期	成熟期	全育期
平均气温	-0.25	-0.18	-0.34^*	-0.19	-0.37^*	-0.39^*
降水量	-0.42^*	-0.02	0.31	-0.14	0.00	-0.23
日照时数	0.09	0.02	-0.45^*	0.22	0.19	0.31