Abstract:

Abstract：According to the meteorological data and wheat production in 1979-2008 in Rizhao City, using methods of mathematical statistics for screening, analysis on the correlation of wheat production to climatic factors that affect the relevance by using the SPSS statistical software, select two high correlation factors, and establish the multiple regression models. Then the production of Calendar year is tested, Calculation shows that Wheat yield forecasting fits a higher rate of actual yield ,and the maximum prediction accuracy is100%, the smallest accuracy is 82% , the average accuracy is 90%.The prediction model has a high reliability and practicality , it as an effective tool for quantitative prediction will provide basis for decision making for agricultural production management and flow of trade in agricultural products.