Abstract:

Abstract: This paper did research of occurrence and risk assessment of meteorological disaster in Harbin by using index sign model and information diffusion theory with 35 years summer temperature, rainfall and thunderstorms data of Harbin meteorological station from 1971 to 2005. The results show that: The probability of occurrence of low temperature and cold damage is big, but the frequency generally goes down; arid disaster and flood disaster occurs frequently in Harbin region, the strength is not strong on the whole; occurrence frequency of arid and flood disaster all have been above 65% in the past 35 years, but strong disaster is little; the average number of days of thunderstorms is 33.54d with the last 35 years of Harbin, only one year is strong disaster year with the number of days is more than 50d,the thunderstorms occur mainly at June, July and August. In the main meteorological disaster of Harbin, the probability of arid and flood disaster is the highest, followed by the low temperature and cold damage.