Abstract:

The improved GTAP-E model and the 6th version of non-CO2 greenhouse gas emissions database is used to simulate the emission reduction potential and policy implications of Chinese non CO2 greenhouse gas. The results showed that China will become the country that has the maximum emissions of non-CO2 greenhouse gas in the world in 2020, and will account for about 20% of the total emissions in the world. 73% of non-CO2 greenhouse gas emissions come from agricultural sector. The next 10 years, cattle and sheep sector, industry and service sectors will have the fastest increasing speed of the non-CO2 green house gas emission, and the increasing speed of service sector grow faster than that of industry sector and will surpass industrial emissions in 2010. China could implement non-CO2 greenhouse gas emissions policy to reduce the international pressure of CO2 reduction. Although higher carbon tax levy will bring higher non-CO2 emission reduction, the efficiencies of the policies between low carbon tax and high carbon tax have little difference. Therefore, when the policy of non-CO2 emission reduction is implemented, it should be controlled at a reasonable level.