1951—2015年北京极端降水变化研究

doi:10.11924/j.issn.1000-6850.casb16120070

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 摘要：为了掌握北京极端降水事件的气候变化规律，基于1951—2015年北京日降水数据，利用主成分分析、相关分析、突变检测以及R/S分析等方法，对北京地区极端降水变化趋势进行研究。结果表明：1951—2015年北京持续湿期、暴雨日数、强降水量、1日最大降水量、降水强度、湿日降水量呈显著下降趋势。北京暴雨日数、强降水量、1日最大降水量、降水强度、湿日降水量具有相似的年代际变化，均在1950s偏强，在1960s—1990s呈波动减少趋势， 2000s均显著减少减弱。突变检测结果表明，北京1日最大降水量和降水强度分别于1968和1988年发生由强到弱的突变。除持续干期指数之外的其他极端降水指数之间存在显著的正相关，极端降水量指数、各等级降水日数、持续降水时间是导致北京极端降水变化的主导因子。R/S分析表明北京极端降水指数未来具有减小减弱的趋势。北京极端降水未来呈减少趋势将增大干旱灾害的风险，严重影响水资源供给，因此应加强调节控制，以保障北京社会经济尤其是农业的可持续发展。

关键词: 烤烟, 烤烟, 高磷肥料, 土壤化学性状, 烤烟生长

Abstract: The paper aims to master the climate change laws of extreme precipitation events in Beijing. By adopting methods of linear regression, principal component analysis, correlation analysis, Mann- Kendall mutation test and R/S analysis, the authors studied the variation trends of extreme precipitation events in Beijing based on daily precipitation data during 1951-2015. The results showed that: extreme precipitation indices of CWD, R25mm, R95p, RX1day, SDII and PRCPTOT showed a significant decreasing trend; extreme precipitation indices of R25 mm, R95p, RX1day, SDII and PRCPTOT showed similar interdecadal variation, the indices were all strong in the 1950s and basically showed a sustained decreasing tendency of fluctuation during 1960s- 1990s and the indices were significantly reduced and weakened in the 2000s; the extreme precipitation indices of RX1day and SDII had mutation from strong to weak in 1968 and 1988, respectively; the extreme precipitation indices had significant positive correlations among them except for the CDD; the variables of extreme precipitation (RX1day, R99p, RX5day and R95p), the variables of precipitation days at different levels (R25 mm, R20 mm and R10 mm) and the variables of precipitation duration (CDD and CWD) were the main factors resulting in the change of extreme precipitation events in Beijing; R/S analysis of extreme precipitation indices indicated that extreme precipitation events would reduce and keep a weakening trend in future in Beijing and the change of extreme precipitation events had a direct impact on the change of regional water resources. The contradiction between supply and demand of water resources will be further intensified in the future and will increase the risk of drought disaster, so the integrated water management must be strengthened accordingly to ensure the sustainable development of Beijing’s social economy, especially agriculture.

中图分类号:

P467
S161.2

刘海涛,叶彩华,杨洁. 1951—2015年北京极端降水变化研究[J]. 中国农学通报, 2018, 34(1): 109-117.

杨洁. Extreme Precipitation Variation in Beijing During 1951-2015[J]. Chinese Agricultural Science Bulletin, 2018, 34(1): 109-117.

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