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中国农学通报 ›› 2006, Vol. 22 ›› Issue (10): 158-158.

所属专题: 棉花

• 农学 农业基础科学 • 上一篇    下一篇

河北省棉花产量灰色理论分析与预测

张文英,栗雨勤,王有增   

  • 出版日期:2006-10-05 发布日期:2006-10-05

Analyzes and Forecast of Cotton Yield of Hebei Province with Grey System

Zhang Wenying, Li Yuqin, Wang Youzeng   

  • Online:2006-10-05 Published:2006-10-05

摘要: 为了解河北省棉花产量变化的规律,明确今后育种工作的目标和前景,利用灰色系统理论的GM (1,1)模型,依据1980~2003年河北省审定的棉花品种的区域试验产量,建立预测模型为: ^X(1)(k+1) =38965.718385e 0.024221-37990.718385。并在生产因素保持相对稳定的条件下,据此模型对河北省棉花生产进行规划性预测,为生产的规划与决策提供科学信息。明确棉花育种的总体目标是优化品种和品质结构,保持适纺中支纱品种选育的优势,重视发展目前市场短缺的长绒和中短绒陆地棉新品种选育。

关键词: 设施园艺, 设施园艺, 温室设施, 环境控制, 产业

Abstract: For knowing ordinary varied regular of cotton yield of Hebei province and making clear aim and prospect of breeding in the future, he used the model of GM(1,1) of grey system through analysis regional experiment yield of cotton varieties which were approved by Hebei variety committee. a predictable model of the occurring of cotton`s develope: ^X(1)(k+1) =38965.718385e 0.024221-37990.718385 was formulated, Model to forecast the cotton produce of Hebei province production under the conditions of relative stability of all its relevantelements and to provide scientific information for production planning and decision making. The overall aim of cotton breeding which optimized structure of variety and quality was maked clear, it was keeping advantage of seed selecting medium count yarn variety and paiying attention to seed selection long-staple and short-staple upland cotton of shortage in market.

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