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中国农学通报

中国农学通报 ›› 2014, Vol. 30 ›› Issue (26): 184-189.doi: 10.11924/j.issn.1000-6850.2013-2976

• 资源 环境 生态 土壤 气象 • 上一篇    下一篇

沈阳市降水序列趋势变化及周期分析

孟鹏 孟鹏 廖国进 张国林   

  • 收稿日期:2013-11-13 修回日期:2013-12-20 出版日期:2014-09-15 发布日期:2014-09-15
  • 基金资助:
    科技部农业科技成果转化资金项目 “农田土壤含水量监测预报技术推广应用” (05ESN217400412)。

Analysis on Precipitation Sequence Trend and Cycles in Shenyang

  • Received:2013-11-13 Revised:2013-12-20 Online:2014-09-15 Published:2014-09-15

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摘要： 为了掌握沈阳降水特征、趋势变化和周期演变规律，利用1951—2012年近62年降水观测资料，并将资料序列划分为若干子序列，采用相关检验、线性趋势拟合、距平累积和有序聚类等现代气候统计诊断技术，分析年降水的变化特征。结果表明：沈阳年降水量62年长序列及年际逐一增加子序列呈现减少趋势，截止2012年倾向率为-17.578 mm/10 a，减少降水量109.0 mm；年际逐一减少时子序列降水倾向率变化较小，且不显著。20世纪50年代是降水量丰富期，对降水趋势变化影响显著。30年滑动平均序列以1953—1982年降幅最大，速率为-84.822 mm/10 a。在1951—2012年序列中，1964年和1975年出现2次降水突变减少，分别使平均降水量减少116.2 mm和70.8 mm。年降水量的多雨年和少雨年均存在10~12年周期性。研究结果对从新认识沈阳降水资源变化趋势提出了新的见解，也为气象、水利及农业部门提供参考。

关键词: 日光温室, 日光温室, 揭帘时间, 预报指数

Abstract: In order to obtain the features, trend change and evolution cycle of precipitation in Shenyang, the author utilized precipitation data during nearly 62 years from 1951 to 2012, divided data sequence into several sub-sequences, adopted a series of modern climate statistic and diagnostic techniques such as relevant test, linear trend fitting, anomalies accumulation and ordered clustering to analyze annual rainfall variation features. It was shown from the results that 62 years length sequences of annual gradually-increasing subsequence of precipitation in Shenyang were trending to decrease. As of 2012, the trending rate was -17.578 mm/10 a, the rainfall reduced by 109.0 mm; the precipitation trending rate changed insignificantly, in a non-significant rate. 1950s was abundant rainfall period, and made obvious impact on precipitation trends. 30 years moving average sequence reached the maximum values in 1953 to 1982 years; the rate was -84.822 mm/10 a. As for sequences in 1951 to 2012 years, in 1964 and 1975, the precipitation suddenly reduced by 116.2 mm and 70.8 mm respectively. 10 years to 12 years periodicity appeared in both rainy and dry years. Based on the results, the author presented new insights for further understanding to trends in precipitation resource in Shenyang, and provideed reference for weather, water conservancy and agricultural sectors.