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中国农学通报

中国农学通报 ›› 2015, Vol. 31 ›› Issue (32): 161-173.doi: 10.11924/j.issn.1000-6850.casb14110031

• 资源 环境 生态 土壤 气象 • 上一篇    下一篇

多个数值预报产品对山西3次强降水过程预报性能的对比分析

马严枝1,郭媛媛1,董春卿1,张国勇2   

  1. (1山西省气象台,太原 030006；2山西省气象局,太原 030002）
  • 收稿日期:2014-11-06 修回日期:2015-10-22 接受日期:2015-09-13 出版日期:2015-11-16 发布日期:2015-11-16
  • 通讯作者: 马严枝
  • 基金资助:
    山西省气象局重点课题“山西省环境空气预报数值模式研究”(SXKZDTQ20140601)；山西省气象局一般课题“山西夏季区域性高温中期预报方法研究”(SXKYBTQ201510015)。

Performance Verification and Comparative Analysis of Three Heavy Rain Forecastsin Shanxi with Several Numerical Products

Ma Yanzhi1, Guo Yuanyuan1, Dong Chunqing1, Zhang Guoyong2   

  1. (1Shanxi Meteorological Office, Taiyuan 030006;2Shanxi Meteorological Bureau, Taiyuan 030002)
  • Received:2014-11-06 Revised:2015-10-22 Accepted:2015-09-13 Online:2015-11-16 Published:2015-11-16

摘要： 为更好地释用数值模式的预报产品，采用客观分析和ETS评分方法，运用T639-thin模式、ECMWF-thin模式、Japan_thin模式及NECP模式对2014年7月发生在山西的3次降水过程的预报性能进行了效果检验和对比分析。分析结果表明：4家模式对欧亚大陆中高纬环流形式以及地面系统的调整和演变均有较强的预报能力；4家数值模式预报产品基本能把握雨带的走向，但对强降水过程中降水强度的模拟与实况相比偏差较大，而且对强降水中心的预报稳定性也较差；对于ETS评分，NECP模式的评分在3次过程中均较高，并且不同数值模式的24 h时效预报效果要优于其他预报时效。总体来看，对于环流形式的演变，EC模式模拟效果是最好的，其次是NECP模式，T639模式和日本模式次之；对于降水量级以及落区的预报，NECP模式预报较准确，具有较高的参考价值，其次是EC模式，而T639模式和日本模式预报的稳定性较差。

关键词: 氰烯菌酯, 氰烯菌酯, 己唑醇, 禾谷丝核菌, 立枯丝核菌, 小麦纹枯病, 联合毒力

Abstract: This paper is mainly about the performance verification and comparative analysis of three precipitation processes in July 2014 in Shanxi through the T639 model, EC model, Japan model and NECP model. In order to better interpret and apply the forecast products of numerical model, the verification and analysis were based on the objective analysis and ETS score method. The results showed that the four models had good performance in forecasting the large-scale circulation evolution and the adjustment of Eurasia in high latitude circulation and the ground system. The four numerical models had good forecast in basic direction of the rainfalls and fall area, but their forecasts in precipitation intensity and the stability of the heavy rain center were worse than the actual situation. For the ETS score, the score of the NECP model was higher in all the three rainfall processes, and the 24 hours forecast effect of different numerical models was superior to other forecast validity. Overall, EC model is the best for the evolution of the circulation form, followed by NECP model, and T639 model and Japan model take the last place; NECP model is more accurate for the forecast of precipitation and fall area than the EC mode, while the forecast stability of the T639 model and Japan model are poor. So NECP model has the high reference value, it can be used in the actual forecast operation.