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中国农学通报

中国农学通报 ›› 2015, Vol. 31 ›› Issue (26): 156-160.doi: 10.11924/j.issn.1000-6850.casb15030169

• 资源 环境 生态 土壤 气象 • 上一篇    下一篇

基于高斯随机扰动的潜在蒸散敏感性分析

邱康俊,温华洋,王 根,朱华亮   

  1. (安徽省气象信息中心,合肥 230031）
  • 收稿日期:2015-03-20 修回日期:2015-08-03 接受日期:2015-06-23 出版日期:2015-09-23 发布日期:2015-09-23
  • 通讯作者: 邱康俊
  • 基金资助:
    公益性行业（气象）科研专项“作物湿渍害星地一体化检测与预警技术研究及应用示范”(GYHY201406028)；安徽省气象科技发展基金“安徽省蒸散量标准数据集研究”(KM201405)。

Analysis of Potential Evapotranspiration Sensitivity Based on Gauss Random Disturbance

Qiu Kangjun, Wen Huayang, Wang Gen, Zhu Hualiang   

  1. (Anhui Meteorological Information Center, Hefei 230031)
  • Received:2015-03-20 Revised:2015-08-03 Accepted:2015-06-23 Online:2015-09-23 Published:2015-09-23

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摘要： 旨在定量分析不同气象要素对潜在蒸散量敏感性大小的时空分布，以期为提高蒸散量计算精度提供依据。以1961年1月1日—2012年12月31日的日观测资料为基础，通过添加高斯分布随机扰动，计算各要素的敏感系数。研究表明：安徽全区年尺度上，日照时数和平均风速的敏感性最高，敏感系数分为0.1258和0.1089；月尺度上，4—9月蒸散量的主要敏感因素为日照时数，10月至次年3月的主要敏感因素为平均风速和实际水汽压。敏感性空间分布不均，淮河以北地区平均风速为主要敏感因素；淮河以南地区则仍是日照时数为主要敏感因素。

关键词: 绣球丁香, 绣球丁香, 嫩枝扦插, 生根, 内源激素

Abstract: The paper aims to calculate sensitive coefficient of various meteorological elements on potential evapotranspiration, with the daily observations from January 1, 1961 to December 31, 2012, by adding Gauss distributed random disturbance. Research showed that: on the year scale in Anhui Area, the sunshine duration and the average wind speed were the highest sensitive factors, sensitive coefficients were 0.1258 and 0.1089. On the month scale, the main sensitive factor from April to September was the sunshine duration, the main sensitive factors from October to March were the average wind speed and the actual water vapor pressure. The sensitivity of spatial distribution was uneven. The sunshine duration was the main sensitive factor for the south area of Huaihe, the average wind speed was the main sensitive factor for the north area of Huaihe.