关键词: 春性小麦, 春性小麦, 播期, 壮苗, 积温

Abstract: The paper aims to understand the effect of temperature change on thermal conditions of agriculture and grain production in Shandong Province. Based on weather stations’data from 1961 to 2012, we extracted the change index of temperature and agricultural thermal condition using GIS to analyze the spatio-temporal distribution laws and variation characteristics of temperature and the effect on agricultural productive condition in Shandong. The results showed that: (1) the average temperature of the four seasons in Shandong and the west, the central and the east of Shandong increased significantly on the whole, after 2000, the trend was more obvious; the spring, winter and annual average temperature showed a significant warming from 1990s, temperature in summer and autumn fluctuated in the 50 years, but the overall warming was minor; (2) the temperature increased the most in east Shandong, while the least in west Shandong, the temperature showed an upward trend from the west to the east; (3) the temperature tendency rates of autumn and summer in Shandong and the west, the central and the east of Shandong were low, while“warm winter”and“warm spring” phenomena appeared in winter and spring; (4) the ≥0℃ and ≥10℃ accumulated temperature rose in Shandong, especially in the last 10 years; the interval days between the first and the last day of ≥0℃ and ≥10℃ fluctuated greatly, but the trends were all rising.