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中国农学通报

中国农学通报 ›› 2016, Vol. 32 ›› Issue (26): 120-124.doi: 10.11924/j.issn.1000-6850.casb16030099

所属专题： 园艺； 农业气象

• 资源 环境 生态 土壤 气象 • 上一篇    下一篇

昌黎地区酿酒葡萄霜霉病发生前期气象条件分析

李瑞盈1，孙丽华2，张晨宇3，郑 浩3   

  1. （1河北省秦皇岛市昌黎县气象局，河北昌黎 066600；2河北省秦皇岛市气象局，河北秦皇岛 066000；
    3秦皇岛市气象灾害防御中心，河北秦皇岛 066000）
  • 收稿日期:2016-03-14 修回日期:2016-04-02 接受日期:2016-04-25 出版日期:2016-09-21 发布日期:2016-09-21
  • 通讯作者: 孙丽华
  • 基金资助:
    河北省气象局科研开发项目“秦皇岛市酒葡萄病虫害发生前期气象条件分析及预报模型”(15ky30)。

Meteorological Condition Prior to Downy Mildew of Wine Grape in Changli

Li Ruiying1, Sun Lihua2, Zhang Chenyu3, Zheng Hao3   

  1. (1The Weather Bureau of Changli in Qinghuangdao, Changli Hebei 066600;
    2The Weather Bureau of Qinhuangdao, Qinhuangdao Hebei 066000;
    3Qinhuangdao Meteorological Disaster Prevention Center, Qinhuangdao Hebei 066000)
  • Received:2016-03-14 Revised:2016-04-02 Accepted:2016-04-25 Online:2016-09-21 Published:2016-09-21

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摘要： 旨在分析河北昌黎地区酿酒葡萄霜霉病发生与气象条件之间的关系，建立病害发生预测方程，以期为结合短中期天气预报产品对酒葡萄霜霉病的预测预警提供技术支持。使用了近5年（2009—2013）霜霉病发生观测资料和气温、相对湿度、降水等观测记录，对病发前7天的气象条件进行逐要素分析，再通过多元回归分析建立回归方程。结果表明，低温高湿是霜霉病发生和流行的重要条件，对昌黎地区酿酒葡萄而言，当未来一周气温在22~26℃之间、相对湿度可达到80%以上且将有降水出现时，若根据预测模型计算得到的Y值在0.95~1.5之间则极易发生霜霉病。该研究得到了昌黎地区酒葡萄霜霉病发生的预测模型，对预测病害发生、加强病害防治有十分积极的作用，有助于气象部门更好地为酒葡萄种植户提供服务。

关键词: 野生红茶, 野生红茶, 杏仁香气, 顶空固相微萃取, 气质联用

Abstract: In order to analyze the relationship between the downy mildew of wine grape and meteorological conditions in Changli, the predictive equation was established to offer technical support for the prediction of downy mildew using short-term weather forecast. The observing data of downy mildew and the meteorological factors such as temperature, humidity and rainfall in recent 5 years (2009-2013) were used, each factor of 7 days before downy mildew occurrence was analyzed, and the multiple regression analysis was performed to gain the regression equation. The results showed that: low temperature and high humidity were the important condition for the occurrence and prevalence of downy mildew; to the wine grape in Changli, when the temperature reached 22-26℃ within a week, the relative humidity could reach more than 80% and a rainfall would happen, meanwhile when the Y value calculated according to the prediction model was between 0.95-1.5, downy mildew would happen easily. In this paper, the predictive model of downy mildew of wine grape in Changli was obtained, which would play a very positive role in predicting the onset of disease, strengthening the control of disease, and helping meteorological department to serve wine grape growers better.

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