攀西烤烟生产对气候变化的敏感性和脆弱性研究

doi:10.11924/j.issn.1000-6850.casb16040008

中国农学通报 ›› 2017, Vol. 33 ›› Issue (4): 111-118.doi: 10.11924/j.issn.1000-6850.casb16040008

所属专题：农业气象；烟草种植与生产

• 资源环境生态土壤气象 • 上一篇下一篇

攀西烤烟生产对气候变化的敏感性和脆弱性研究

陈超,庞艳梅,刘琰琰,张玉芳,曹艳秋

中国气象局成都高原气象研究所/高原与盆地暴雨旱涝灾害四川省重点实验室,中国气象局成都高原气象研究所/高原与盆地暴雨旱涝灾害四川省重点实验室,成都信息工程大学/大气科学学院高原大气与环境四川省重点实验室,四川省农业气象中心,凉山州气象局

收稿日期:2016-04-01 修回日期:2016-05-11 接受日期:2016-05-16 出版日期:2017-02-10 发布日期:2017-02-10
通讯作者: 陈超
基金资助:
四川省科技计划项目“攀西地区特色优势作物农业气象灾害评估技术及应用”(2015NZ0035)；国家重点基础研究计划（973 计划）“气候变暖背景下我国南方旱涝灾害的变化规律和机理及其影响与对策”(2013CB430205)。

Sensitivity and Vulnerability of Flu-cured Tobacco Production to Climate Change in Panxi

Received:2016-04-01 Revised:2016-05-11 Accepted:2016-05-16 Online:2017-02-10 Published:2017-02-10

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 本研究基于1981—2014年四川省攀西地区15个县的气象和烤烟资料，建立烤烟产量和各气候因子的一元线性及逐步回归方程，研究攀西烤烟产量对单个气候因子和气候变化的敏感性与脆弱性，为烤烟生产应对气候变化提供理论支持。结果表明：攀西烤烟产量随着气温和日较差上升1℃、降水减少100 mm、辐射增加100 MJ/m2产生了响应，辐射量上升导致产量敏感的面积比例最大，占播种总面积的51.8%，产量变化为-47.26%~23.53%；最低气温升高导致产量脆弱的面积最大，占总面积的32.0%，产量变化为-38.3%~-7.79%；产量对移栽期的气温和日较差升高、成熟采烤期的辐射量增加以及旺长期的降水量减少最敏感。受到6个气候因子变化的综合影响，烤烟产量对气候变化表现为敏感的面积比例为59.8%，产量变化为-26.3~36.1%，脆弱的面积为28.9%；产量对旺长期和成熟采烤期的气候变化最敏感。不同区域和不同生育阶段气候变化对烤烟产量的影响存在差异，需要因地制宜地应对气候变化带来的不利影响，并抓住有利的气候资源，保障攀西烤烟的安全生产。

关键词: 金钱草, 金钱草, 种植模式, 指标成分

Abstract: Based on the meteorological data and flu-cured tobacco production data from 15 counties in Panxi of Sichuan from 1981 to 2014, the sensitivity and vulnerability of yield for flu-cured tobacco to climatic factors and climate change were estimated by using the regression relationships between changes in yield and climatic variables which could provide important theoretical support for flu-cured tobacco production to address climate change. The results showed that: with a 1℃ warming in growing-season air temperature, 1℃ increase in diurnal temperature range, 100 mm decreased in precipitation, 100 MJ/m2 increased in radiation, yield of the flu-cured tobacco showed increased or decreased to these changes; the area with yield sensitivity was largest to the increase in radiation, which was 51.8% of the total sown area, the yield change was -47.26%~23.53%; the area with yield vulnerability was largest to the increase in minimum temperature, which was 32.0% of the total sown area, the yield change was -38.3%~-7.79%; responses of yield for flu-cured tobacco to climatic factors mainly occurred in transplanting, vigorous growth and maturing stages; the combined effects of the observed trends of the 6 climatic variables caused significant change in roughly 59.8% of the flu-cured tobacco areas, the yield change was 26.3%-36.1%, but with a roughly 28.9% showed yield vulnerability; response of yield for flu-cured tobacco to climate change mainly occurred in vigorous growth and maturing stages; there were big differences in the responses of yield for flu-cured tobacco to the various climatic factors in different countries and different growth stages. Therefore, we need to address the negative impacts of climate change according to local conditions, as well as seize favorable climatic resources during the key growing period, in order to ensure flu-cured tobacco production safety in Panxi.

中图分类号:

S162.3

陈超,庞艳梅,刘琰琰,张玉芳,曹艳秋. 攀西烤烟生产对气候变化的敏感性和脆弱性研究[J]. 中国农学通报, 2017, 33(4): 111-118.

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攀西烤烟生产对气候变化的敏感性和脆弱性研究

Sensitivity and Vulnerability of Flu-cured Tobacco Production to Climate Change in Panxi

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