关键词: 甘蔗, 甘蔗, 大螟, 地统计学, 空间格局

Abstract: The paper aims to reveal the sensitivity of plant phenophase to climate change in Fujian. Based on the meteorological data of 18 agricultural meteorological stations from 1961 to 2015 and the phenophase for woody plants. The response of plant phenophase to climate change was investigated by using the methods of linear regression, multiple stepwise regression and M-K mutation testing. The results showed that: (1) the annual average temperature increased at the rate of 0.18℃/10 a, the annual precipitation trends was not obvious, and the annual sunshine hours decreased significantly at the rate of 65.49 h/10 a; (2) the changing trend of plant phenophase varied in Fujian, the phenophase of Chinese tallow (Sapium sebiferum) in spring advanced at the rate of (3.57-29.27) d/10 a, while the phenophase of Neem (Melia azedarach), Sweet Osmanthus (Osmanthus fragrans) and Kapok (Gossampinus malasarica) in spring were delayed slightly, all of the phenophase in autumn were not consistent; and the phenophase during plant growing season prolonged; (3) the key meteorological factors influencing the initial stage of development of Chinese tallow were average temperature in Feburary (T2), average temperature in March (T3), sunshine duration in Feburary (S2), sunshine hours in March (S3) and the extreme temperature in late autumn and early winter; the key meteorological fators affecting the deciduous leaves were the average temperature and precipitation in the beginning of winter (precipitation, sunshine hours, extreme high temperature) or the period from Feburary to March; and the key factors affecting the growth of the leaves of Neem were Tmax2, T3, S2 and R4; the key meteorological factors influencing the deciduous leaves of Neem were precipitation in April, May and October; the key mtetorological factors affecting Kapok at flower beginning period and Sweet Osmanthus at leaves beginning were was extreme temperature in November of last year, and the average temperature in February, respectively. In general, the response of plant phenophase to climate change was more sensitive, and the mutation points of plant phenophase were usually early or synchronized with the mutation points of various meteorological factors, which can be used as indicator of climate change.