关键词: 黑麦草, 黑麦草, 人工草地, 害虫, 天敌, 鞘翅目

Abstract: The paper aims to accurately monitor the dynamic growth and forecast yield of winter wheat in Shanxi. The authors simulated winter wheat yield with high, medium and low fields in Hongdong of Shanxi by using ALMANAC crop growth model. The parameters such as crop attributes, soil, weather and field management measures were collected, and the parameters were adjusted according to the actual situation. The results showed that: the relative error of simulated yields for winter wheat was - 7.8%-5.7%, while that of simulated leaf area indexes was -12.5%-13.6%, the maximum leaf area index of irrigated land was the max; compared with the background state, the growth period was ahead of time, the leaf area index of water land changed little, that of dry land was much lower; the temperature mainly impacted on the growth period, and the water mainly influenced the leaf area index. The model ALMANAC can preferably simulate the dynamic changes of the yields and leaf area indexes of winter wheat; and the model is able to simulate the leaf area index under different water conditions and the effect of climate change on winter wheat.