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中国农学通报

中国农学通报 ›› 2023, Vol. 39 ›› Issue (11): 88-97.doi: 10.11924/j.issn.1000-6850.casb2022-0799

• 资源·环境·生态·土壤·气象 • 上一篇    下一篇

黑土区马铃薯气候生产潜力对气候变化的响应及优势产区增产空间研究

吕佳佳1,2,3(), 刘松4, 李宇光5, 顾平6, 韩俊杰1,2,3, 宫丽娟1,2,3, 王萍1,2,3, 李秀芬1,2,3()   

  1. 1 中国气象局东北地区生态气象创新开放实验室，哈尔滨 150030
    2 黑龙江省气象院士工作站，哈尔滨 150030
    3 黑龙江省气象科学研究所，哈尔滨 150030
    4 黑龙江省气象数据中心，哈尔滨 150030
    5 黑龙江省生态气象中心，哈尔滨 150030
    6 黑龙江省生态环境监测中心，哈尔滨 150056
  • 收稿日期:2022-09-13 修回日期:2022-12-03 出版日期:2023-04-15 发布日期:2023-04-10
  • 通讯作者: 李秀芬，1973年出生，黑龙江哈尔滨人，硕士，正研级高级工程师，研究方向：生态与农业气象。通信地址：150030 黑龙江省哈尔滨市电碳路71号 黑龙江省气象科学研究所，Tel：0451-55101013，E-mail：ge-2003@163.com。
  • 作者简介:

    吕佳佳，女，1983年出生，黑龙江哈尔滨人，硕士，高级工程师，研究方向：生态与农业气象。通信地址：150030 黑龙江省哈尔滨市电碳路71号 黑龙江省气象科学研究所，Tel：0451-55101013，E-mail：。

  • 基金资助:
    黑龙江省科学基金项目“黑土区马铃薯增产空间评估及其适生性研究”(LH2021D018)

Response of Potato Climatic Potential Productivity to Climate Change in Black Soil Region and Yield Increase Potential in Dominant Production Areas

LV Jiajia1,2,3(), LIU Song4, LI Yuguang5, GU Ping6, HAN Junjie1,2,3, GONG Lijuan1,2,3, WANG Ping1,2,3, LI Xiufen1,2,3()   

  1. 1 Innovation and Opening Laboratory of Eco-meteorology in Northeast China, CMA, Harbin 150030
    2 Meteorological Academician Workstation of Heilongjiang Province, Harbin 150030
    3 Forestry Department of Heilongjiang Province Institute of Meteorological Sciences, Harbin 150030
    4 Meteorological Data Center of Heilongjiang Province, Harbin 150030
    5 Heilongjiang Eco-meteorological Center, Harbin 150030
    6 Heilongjiang Ecological Environment Monitoring Center, Harbin 150056
  • Received:2022-09-13 Revised:2022-12-03 Online:2023-04-15 Published:2023-04-10

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摘要：

揭示黑龙江省马铃薯气候生产潜力的时空演变，明确气候变化的影响效应，了解优势产区的增产潜力，以期为指导黑土区马铃薯优化生产布局、保障黑土区粮食安全提供基础参考。利用黑龙江省80个气象站点1961—2020年的逐日气象资料及马铃薯地段产量资料，采用逐步订正法，精细化评估马铃薯各级生产潜力的时空变化特征，量化辐射、气温、降水主要气候变化因子的影响效应，优化松嫩平原西部马铃薯优势产区的种植空间。结果表明：1961—2020年黑龙江省马铃薯光合、光温、气候生产潜力平均值分别为28885、25802、13843 kg/hm2；光合、光温和气候生产潜力分别表现为不显著的上升、下降和下降趋势；与潜在生育期内辐射、气温、降水的趋势一致。马铃薯光合、光温生产潜力呈现出自北向南逐渐递增的纬度特征，高值区位于松嫩平原南部及牡丹江南部局地；气候生产潜力自中部向周围递减；气候变化对马铃薯气候生产潜力的影响为：辐射的影响为正效应，气温、降水及气候变化综合的影响均以负效应为主。对于松嫩平原南部降水偏少地区，增温、降水量增加有利于提高马铃薯气候生产潜力，而对于东部降水偏多地区影响为弊大于利。松嫩平原西部以其优越的气候及土地资源，马铃薯单产仍存在巨大的增产空间。

关键词: 黑土区, 马铃薯, 气候生产潜力, 气候变化, 影响效应

Abstract:

Revealing the temporal and spatial evolution of potato climatic potential productivity in Heilongjiang Province, clarifying the effects of climate change, and understanding the yield increase potential of the dominant potato producing areas can provide basic reference for optimizing potato production layout and ensuring food security in black soil region. Based on daily meteorological data of 80 weather stations and the potato yield data in Heilongjiang Province from 1961 to 2020, the spatial and temporal variations of potato productivity were assessed through a step-by-step correction method, and the influential effects of the main climate change factors of radiation, air temperature and precipitation were quantified to optimize potato planting in the west of the Songnen Plain. The results showed that the average photosynthetic, light temperature and climatic potential productivity of potato in Heilongjiang Province from 1961 to 2020 were 28885, 25802 and 13843 kg/hm2, respectively. Photosynthetic, light temperature and climatic potential productivity exhibited insignificant upward, downward and downward trend, respectively, and the trends were consistent with the trends of radiation, temperature and precipitation in the potential growth period. The photosynthetic and light temperature productivity of potato increased gradually from north to south, and the high value area was located in the south of the Songnen Plain and the south of Mudanjiang; the climatic potential productivity decreased from the middle to the periphery; the effects of climate change on potato climatic potential productivity were as follows: the radiation effect was positive, while the combined effects of temperature, precipitation and climate change were mainly negative. For areas with low rainfall in the south of the Songnen Plain, the increase of temperature and precipitation had positive effect on the improvement of potato climatic potential productivity, while for areas with high precipitation in the east of the Songnen Plain, the effects were more harmful than beneficial. Because of the superior climate and land resources in the west of the Songnen Plain, there is still a huge increase potential of yield per unit area in potato planting.

Key words: black soil region, potato, climatic potential productivity, climate change, effect