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中国农学通报

中国农学通报 ›› 2023, Vol. 39 ›› Issue (30): 61-73.doi: 10.11924/j.issn.1000-6850.casb2022-0864

• 资源·环境·生态·土壤 • 上一篇    下一篇

甘肃省碳排放特征及各地区碳达峰时间预测

祁海强1(), 周冬梅1, 江晶2, 朱小燕1, 马静1, 李绵德1, 张军1,3()   

  1. 1 甘肃农业大学资源与环境学院，兰州 730070
    2 甘肃农业大学管理学院，兰州 730070
    3 甘肃省节水农业工程技术研究中心，兰州 730070
  • 收稿日期:2022-10-11 修回日期:2023-02-20 出版日期:2023-10-25 发布日期:2023-10-19
  • 通讯作者: 张军，男，1977年出生，甘肃定西人，教授，博士，主要从事农业资源可持续利用和生态系统服务功能研究。通信地址：730070 甘肃兰州安宁区营门村1号，甘肃农业大学，E-mail：zhangjun@gsau.edu.cn。
  • 作者简介:

    祁海强，男，1999年出生，甘肃定西人，学生，硕士，研究方向：农业资源利用。通信地址：730070 甘肃兰州安宁区营门村1号，甘肃农业大学，E-mail：。

  • 基金资助:
    甘肃省高等学校创新基金“渭河流域生态安全评价及生态格局优化研究”(2021A-061); 甘肃省自然科学基金“碳氮添加下陇中黄土高原旱作农田土壤生态化学计量特征研究”(21JR7RA811); 甘肃省林业和草原科技创新计划“环县人工造林地生态系统服务评价及优化调控”(LCKJCX202205); 甘肃省社科规划项目“甘肃生态脆弱区生态价值核算及补偿模式优化研究”(2022YB069)

Carbon Emission Characteristics and Prediction of Carbon Peak Time in Gansu Province

QI Haiqiang1(), ZHOU Dongmei1, JIANG Jing2, ZHU Xiaoyan1, MA Jing1, LI Miande1, ZHANG Jun1,3()   

  1. 1 College of Resources and Environmental science, Gansu Agricultural University, Lanzhou 730070
    2 College of Management, Gansu Agricultural University, Lanzhou 730070
    3 Research Center for Water-saving Agriculture of Gansu Province, Lanzhou 730070
  • Received:2022-10-11 Revised:2023-02-20 Published-:2023-10-25 Online:2023-10-19

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摘要：

对甘肃省及各地区2000—2020年碳排放量进行测算，并选取第二产业比重、人均GDP、城镇化率、能源消耗量、每万元GDP能耗、科技投入和工业增加值等影响因素进行主成分分析，基于Probit模型，依据甘肃省“十四五”发展规划中经济发展指标，对各地区GDP增速进行3种经济假定，并对2020—2040年碳排放量及碳达峰时间进行预测。结果显示：甘肃省2000—2012年碳排放量持续增长，年平均增长率为7.3%，2013—2020年碳排放量呈“U”型增长，年平均增长率为1.9%；碳排放量与人均GDP、城镇化率等因素呈正相关，与第二产业比重及每万元GDP能耗呈负相关；快速经济下，2030—2035年实现碳达峰的地区只有临夏州，基准经济下，2030—2035年实现碳达峰的地区有定西市等4个地区，绿色经济下，兰州市等4个地区在2035—2040年实现碳达峰。

关键词: 甘肃省碳排放, 主成分分析, Probit预测模型, 碳达峰时间

Abstract:

This paper calculated the carbon emissions of Gansu Province and various regions from 2000 to 2020, and selected the proportion of secondary industry, per capita GDP, urbanization rate, energy consumption, energy consumption per 10000 yuan of GDP, scientific and technological input, industrial added value and other influencing factors for principal component analysis. Based on the Probit model, according to the economic development indicators of the 14th Five-Year Plan, three economic assumptions were made for GDP growth in each region, and carbon emissions and peak time from 2020 to 2040 were predicted. The results showed that the carbon emissions in Gansu Province increased continuously from 2000 to 2012, with an annual average growth rate of 7.3%. From 2013 to 2020, the carbon emissions showed a “U” growth rate, with an annual average growth rate of 1.9%. Carbon emissions were positively correlated with per capita GDP, urbanization rate and other factors, and negatively correlated with the proportion of secondary industry and energy consumption per 10000 yuan of GDP. Under the fast economy, only Linxia will achieve carbon peak in 2030 to 2035; under the benchmark economy, Dingxi and other four regions will achieve carbon peak in 2030 to 2035; under the green economy, Lanzhou and other four regions will achieve carbon peak in 2035 to 2040.

Key words: carbon emission in Gansu, principal component analysis, Probit model, time of carbon peak