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中国农学通报

中国农学通报 ›› 2025, Vol. 41 ›› Issue (23): 64-73.doi: 10.11924/j.issn.1000-6850.casb2024-0610

• 资源·环境·生态·土壤·气象 • 上一篇    下一篇

织金县水稻气象产量动态预报模型及适宜性区划研究

杨洋1(), 柯莉萍1(), 朱君2, 胡妍妍3, 衮毅3   

  1. 1 贵州省毕节市气象局，贵州毕节 551700
    2 贵州省金沙县气象局，贵州金沙 551800
    3 贵州省大方县气象局，贵州大方 551600
  • 收稿日期:2024-09-27 修回日期:2025-06-24 出版日期:2025-08-19 发布日期:2025-08-19
  • 通讯作者:
    柯莉萍，男，1974年出生，贵州纳雍人，正高级工程师，本科，研究方向：大气探测。通信地址：551700 贵州省毕节市七星关区开行路171号 毕节市气象局，Tel：0857-8303926，E-mail：。
  • 作者简介:

    杨洋，女，1995年出生，工程师，贵州金沙人，本科，主要研究方向：气象灾害防御。通信地址：551700 贵州省毕节市七星关区开行路171号 毕节市气象局，Tel：0857-8303926，E-mail：。

  • 基金资助:
    贵州省气象局登记式项目“织金水稻生长的适宜性气象指标研究”(黔气科登[2021]03-12号); 贵州省气象局省市联合基金项目“基于Ka毫米波测云仪的贵州西部冻雨、雪微物理和动力特征研究”(黔气科合SS-SZ[2024]11号)

Research on Dynamic Forecasting Model and Suitability Zoning of Rice Meteorological Yield in Zhijin County

YANG Yang1(), KE Liping1(), ZHU Jun2, HU Yanyan3, GUN Yi3   

  1. 1 Meteorological Bureau of Bijie City, Guizhou Province, Bijie, Guizhou 551700
    2 Meteorological Bureau of Jinsha County, Guizhou Province, Jinsha, Guizhou 551800
    3 Meteorological Bureau of Dafang County, Dafang, Guizhou 551600
  • Received:2024-09-27 Revised:2025-06-24 Published:2025-08-19 Online:2025-08-19

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摘要：

本研究旨在揭示织金县复杂山地地形下水稻种植的农业气象条件，并进行气候适宜性区划。通过数理统计法分析水稻气象产量与气象要素的相关性，识别出影响水稻生长发育的关键气象因子，采用多元线性回归方法构建了适用于织金县的水稻气象产量预报模型，并验证了其预报精度。同时，结合气象和灾害资料，以及灾害指标体系，运用GIS空间分析技术进行气候适宜性区划，绘制了织金县水稻种植气候适宜性区划图。结果表明，5月下旬的平均气温和日照时数，6月下旬的降水量，7月中旬的降水量和日照时数，8月上旬的平均气温和降水量，以及9月上旬的降水量，是影响织金县水稻生长发育的显著气象因子。构建的预报模型验证结果显示，平均预报准确率高于90%，表明该模型具有较高的可信度和区域适用性。气候适宜性区划图显示，织金县中部偏南偏西的乡镇最适宜种植水稻，而北部及东部乡镇的适宜性较差。本研究所建预报模型对织金县水稻产量具有较好的预测能力，生成的气候适宜性区划图清晰揭示了区域差异，可为优化当地水稻种植布局、规避气象灾害风险、提升单产水平提供直观的决策依据。

关键词: 气象因子, 水稻产量预报, 适宜性, 区划图, 气象指标

Abstract:

The objective of this study is to explore the agro meteorological conditions and suitable climatic zoning of rice cultivation under the complex mountainous terrain of Zhijin County. The correlation between rice meteorological yield and meteorological factors was analyzed by mathematical statistics, the key meteorological factors affecting the growth and development of rice were screened out, a localized rice meteorological yield forecast model was established, and the forecast results were tested. At the same time, according to the meteorological data and disaster weather data, combined with various disaster indicators, the zoning map of rice planting suitability in Zhijin County was comprehensively drawn. The result showed that eight meteorological factors, including average temperature and sunshine hours in late May, precipitation in late June, precipitation and sunshine hours in mid-July, average temperature and precipitation in early August, and precipitation in early September, had the best correlation with the growth and development of rice in Zhijin County. The average forecast accuracy of the established localized forecasting model is more than 90%, and the forecast results are credible, which is suitable for localized yield forecasting. The zoning map of rice climate suitability showed that the climate of southern and western townships in the central part of Zhijin County was the most suitable for rice planting, while the suitability of rice planting in the northern and eastern towns was poor. The prediction model established in this study has good prediction ability for rice yield in Zhijin County. The generated climate suitability zoning map clearly reveals regional differences, which can provide an intuitive decision-making basis for optimizing local rice planting layout, avoiding meteorological disaster risk and improving yield level.

Key words: meteorological factors, rice yield forecast, Suitability, zoning map, meteorological indicators