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中国农学通报

中国农学通报 ›› 2019, Vol. 35 ›› Issue (12): 89-94.doi: 10.11924/j.issn.1000-6850.casb18080040

所属专题： 农业气象

• 资源 环境 生态 土壤 气象 • 上一篇    下一篇

1977-2017年海南极端气候事件变化时空差异分析

佟金鹤, 田光辉, 白蕤, 邹海平, 陈小敏, 陈汇林   

  1. 海南省气象科学研究所/海南省南海气象防灾减灾重点实验室
  • 收稿日期:2018-08-09 修回日期:2018-10-08 接受日期:2018-10-12 出版日期:2019-04-26 发布日期:2019-04-26
  • 通讯作者: 陈汇林
  • 基金资助:
    国家自然科学基金“气候变化背景下中国天然橡胶种植的气候适宜区变化格局及其对橡胶产量影响机制研究”(41765007)、“基于HWIND 和GALES的海南橡胶林台风灾损评估模型”(41465005)；海南省自然基金项目“气候变化对海南橡胶林气候适宜性的影响研究”(20154172)；海南省 气象局青年基金“海南冬季瓜菜低温灾害研究”(HNQXQN20160)。

Extreme Climate Events in Hainan During 1977-2017: Spatio-temporal Differences

陈汇林   

  • Received:2018-08-09 Revised:2018-10-08 Accepted:2018-10-12 Online:2019-04-26 Published:2019-04-26

PDF (PC)

253

摘要： 为研究海南地区极端气候事件的时空变化特征，使用海南省农业气象业务服务系统1977—2017年海南21站逐日气温、降水数据，基于16个极端气候指数(ECI)，计算各测站ECI变化线性趋势，对ECI序列进行趋势、均值突变检验；定义极端气候变异指数 ，并对台站进行聚类分析。结果显示，海南暖事件频率和强度均上升，冷事件强度减弱，发生频率整体降低；极端降水事件频率和强度普遍上升；干旱事件区域差异较大，以增强为主；研究时段各测站ECI没有显著的趋势逆转变化；海南暖事件发生均值突变最多，冷事件次之，降水相关的ECI均值突变发生最少；琼海、琼山、三亚均值突变最多，昌江、西沙、定安均值突变发生最少。对 聚类结果显示，可将21站依据 分为2类及4个离散点。

关键词: 水稻, 水稻, 高产, 技术。

Abstract: The paper aims to study the spatio-temporal variation characteristics of extreme climatic events in Hainan. Based on the daily temperature and precipitation data of 21 stations in Hainan from 1977 to 2017 provided by the Agricultural Meteorological Service System of Hainan and 16 extreme climatic indexes (ECI), we calculated the linear trend of ECI at each station and conducted the trend and mean mutation test of ECI sequence, defined the extreme climate variability index ( ECVI ) and clustered the stations. The results showed that: the frequency and intensity of warm events in Hainan increased, the intensity of cold events decreased, and their frequency decreased as a whole; the frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation events generally rose; the regional difference of drought events was large, mainly with enhancement; there was no significant trend reversal of ECI at each station during the research period; the mean value mutations of warm events occurred the most, followed by cold events, while the precipitation related ECI mean value mutations occurred the least. Qionghai, Qiongshan and Sanya had the most mean value mutations, while Changjiang, Xisha and Dingan had the least mutations. The cluster results showed that the 21 stations could be divided into 2 classes and 4 discrete points.