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中国农学通报

中国农学通报 ›› 2025, Vol. 41 ›› Issue (14): 87-92.doi: 10.11924/j.issn.1000-6850.casb2023-0700

• 资源·环境·生态·土壤·气象 • 上一篇    下一篇

基于能量平衡的春季稻虾田水温预报模型研究

黄永平1(), 邓艳君1(), 刘志雄2, 刘凯文2, 杨青青1, 叶佩1   

  1. 1 湖北省荆州农业气象试验站，湖北荆州 434025
    2 武汉区域气候中心，武汉 430074
  • 收稿日期:2023-09-27 修回日期:2025-02-20 出版日期:2025-05-14 发布日期:2025-05-14
  • 通讯作者:
    邓艳君，女，1988年出生，湖北荆州人，高级工程师，硕士，主要从事农业气象与生态遥感方面的研究。通信地址：434025 湖北省荆州市九阳大道20号 湖北省荆州农业气象试验站，Tel：0716-8080863，E-mail：。
  • 作者简介:

    黄永平，男，1969年出生，湖北仙桃人，高级工程师，本科，主要从事生态与农业气象方面的研究。通信地址：434025 湖北省荆州市九阳大道20号 气象局湖北省荆州农业气象试验站，Tel：0716-8080863，E-mail：。

  • 基金资助:
    湖北省气象局重点基金项目“湖北省主要水产品气象灾害预警预报关键技术研究”(2022Z03); 湖北省气象局科研项目“气象条件对工厂化循环水养殖环境与产量的影响研究”(2022Y19)

Research on Water Temperature Prediction Model of Spring Rice and Shrimp Field Based on Energy Balance

HUANG Yongping1(), DENG Yanjun1(), LIU Zhixiong2, LIU Kaiwen2, YANG Qingqing1, YE Pei1   

  1. 1 Jingzhou Agricultural Meteorological Experimental Station, Jingzhou, Hubei 434025
    2 Wuhan Regional Climate Center, Wuhan 430074
  • Received:2023-09-27 Revised:2025-02-20 Published:2025-05-14 Online:2025-05-14

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摘要：

春季稻虾田水温预报可以让养殖户提前了解水温变化趋势，对投苗时机选择、养殖管理决策、疾病预防、抗应激准备等具有重要指导意义。本研究聚焦于春季稻虾田水温预报模型的构建与检验，基于能量平衡原理，系统分析水体表面太阳总辐射、水面有效回辐射、潜热交换、感热交换等变化特征，计算水体能量收支差，运用微元水体的热量平衡和迁移扩散方程，建立春季稻虾田水温预报模型，并进行预报检验。结果显示：（1）水温预报结果与实测水温变化趋势基本相同，但存在位相差异，水温预报值具有滞后性；（2）晴天条件下逐时水温预报值与实测值偏差小，日平均水温、日最高水温、日最低水温，预报值与实测值平均绝对误差在0.3~0.5℃之间，该预报方程具有较好的实用性和较高的预报精度，预报结果可靠。与数理统计法对比，该水温预报模型更加精确，模型机理性强、模拟预报效果更好，可提高春季稻虾田水温预报准确率。

关键词: 能量平衡, 总辐射, 感热通量, 潜热通量, 水温, 虾稻共作, 水产养殖, 预报模型

Abstract:

Spring water temperature forecasting in rice-shrimp fields allows farmers to anticipate temperature trends in advance, providing critical guidance for decisions on seedling stocking timing, aquaculture management, disease prevention, and anti-stress preparation. Based on the principle of energy balance, this study analyzes variations in surface solar radiation, effective back radiation from the water surface, latent heat exchange, and sensible heat exchange. By calculating the energy budget deficit of the water body and applying heat balance and mass transport equations for a micro-element water body, a spring rice-shrimp field water temperature forecast model is established and validated. The results are as follows. (1) The trends of the forecasted water temperature are basically the same as those of the measured water temperature but exhibit phase lags, indicating a delayed response in predictions; (2) Under clear-sky conditions, hourly forecasts of water temperature exhibit small deviations from measurements, with average absolute errors for daily mean, maximum, and minimum temperatures ranging from 0.3 to 0.5℃. This model demonstrates practical applicability, high precision, and reliable results. Compared with statistical methods, this physically-based model offers stronger interpretability and superior simulation accuracy, thereby enhancing the accuracy of spring water temperature forecasts in rice-shrimp fields.

Key words: energy balance, total radiation, sensible heat flux, latent heat flux, water temperature, shrimp-rice co-cropping, aquaculture, prediction model