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中国农学通报

中国农学通报 ›› 2009, Vol. 25 ›› Issue (8): 68-74.

• 食品 营养 检测 安全 • 上一篇    下一篇

运用AHP法构建粮食安全预警体系及对珠江三角洲地区粮食安全的评析

陈婷,戴尔阜,傅桦   

  • 收稿日期:2009-02-01 修回日期:2009-03-09 出版日期:2009-04-20 发布日期:2009-04-20

A new Type of Food Security Early Warning System Based on AHP and the Evaluation of the Food Security Situation in The Pearl River Delta Region

  • Received:2009-02-01 Revised:2009-03-09 Online:2009-04-20 Published:2009-04-20

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摘要： 本文在充分借鉴国内外研究成果的基础上，采用层次分析法，构建了一个新的粮食安全预警系统，并以此体系对珠江三角洲地区的粮食安全状况进行评价分析。其结果显示，近年来珠江三角洲地区的粮食安全程度呈下降趋势，整体属于轻度风险警级，尤其以2003年为最低点。特别是本地区粮食总产量及人均粮食占有量的逐年减少，使其面临一定的粮食风险。该评价结果与实际情况基本相符，可判断此预警系统较为合理、灵敏，操作简便，实用性强。

关键词: 小麦, 小麦, 产量, 基因型与环境互作, 品种稳定性

Abstract: Fully based on the research achievement at home and aboard,the author choose the method named "The Analytical Hierarchy Process" ,constructing a new type of food security early warning system，and then give the evaluation of the food security situation in The Pearl River Delta Region .The result shows that the food security in this area is in a downward trend in recent years,the overall situation belongs to“slight warning”rank.Especially there is a low-water mark in 2003.Because of the shrinkage of grain output and per capita share of grain, this area will face a certain degree of risk.In view of the evaluation according with the actual fact,we can judge that this new system is rational,acute and easy to operate.