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中国农学通报

中国农学通报 ›› 2010, Vol. 26 ›› Issue (19): 445-449.

• 三农研究 • 上一篇    下一篇

国际农产品价格波动对中国宏观经济影响效应研究—基于CGE模型

林鑫 何凌云 安毅   

  • 收稿日期:2010-05-31 修回日期:2010-06-17 出版日期:2010-10-05 发布日期:2010-10-05
  • 基金资助:

    教育部专项基金课题;国家发改委基金项目

The impact of price fluctuation of imported agricultural products on China’s macro-economy—an empirical study based on CGE model

  • Received:2010-05-31 Revised:2010-06-17 Online:2010-10-05 Published:2010-10-05

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摘要：

摘要：为定量把握进口农产品价格波动对中国宏观经济各个指标及各行业的影响效应，本文基于2007年的投入产出表编制社会核算矩阵，建立多部门的CGE模型，在整个宏观经济的背景下量化分析进口农产品价格冲击对于中国经济的影响。研究表明：进口农产品价格上涨对宏观经济有一定的负效应，对实际GDP的影响效应非常小，且对国民经济各行业产生了紧缩作用。

关键词: 华贵栉孔扇贝, 华贵栉孔扇贝, 壳色, 生长, 存活, 选择育种

Abstract:

Abstract: the price fluctuation of imported agricultural products will definitely have an impact on China’s macroeconomic indices as well as various industries, in order to make quantitative analysis of this problem in the background of China’s aggregate economic activity, a multi-sector CGE model based on the SAM incorporating the latest 2007 input-output table has been constructed .The empirical study shows that :increase of imported .agricultural products’price increase will have a negative effect on macro-economy and contraction effect on related industries,however,real GDP is influenced very little by price increase.