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中国农学通报

中国农学通报 ›› 2011, Vol. 27 ›› Issue (3): 436-440.

所属专题： 农业气象

• 资源 环境 生态 土壤 气象 • 上一篇    下一篇

黑龙江省雷暴空间分布规律及预测研究

张金峰 张丽娟 陈红 高玉红 周东颖   

  • 收稿日期:2010-09-27 修回日期:2010-11-12 出版日期:2011-02-05 发布日期:2011-02-05
  • 基金资助:

    国家自然科学基金项目;黑龙江省科技攻关项目

The Study of Thunderstorms Space Distribution and Prediction in Heilongjiang

  • Received:2010-09-27 Revised:2010-11-12 Online:2011-02-05 Published:2011-02-05

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摘要：

笔者利用信息扩散理论对黑龙江省1971—2005年81个气象站的雷暴空间分布特征及变化规律进行分析，并结合GIS制图技术绘成雷暴日数分别为25、30、35、40天的概率区划图，同时应用灰色GM（1，1）模型针对黑龙江省的哈尔滨、大庆、齐齐哈尔等重要城市未来50年发生雷暴日数≥30天的多雷暴天气进行预测，以期通过预报和采取适当对策最大程度减少雷暴灾害对城市的影响。结果表明：（1）35年来，黑龙江省年平均雷暴日数，中部及中南部较多，东部平原地区较少；（2）全省雷暴发生概率最高值区位于中部和中南部，最低值区位于东部。（3）在未来50年里，哈尔滨、齐齐哈尔、牡丹江、佳木斯、大庆出现雷暴日数≥30的多雷暴年份的次数分别为9、7、6、4、8次，其出现的概率值分别为18%、14%、12%、8%、16%。

关键词: 时空分布, 时空分布

Abstract:

This information diffusion theory of Heilongjiang province from 1971 to 2005, 81 weather stations and the spatial distribution of thunderstorms variation analysis and plotted with GIS mapping technology thunderstorm days were 25 d, 30 d, 35 d, 40 d of the probability of zoning map. In order to forecast and take the appropriate countermeasures to minimize the thunderstorm disasters to the city's influence, while applications GM (1,1) model for Harbin, Daqing, Qiqihaer and other important cities in the next 50 years the number of thunderstorm days occurred ≥ 30 days of thunderstorms did more than forecast. Research obtained: (1)in 35 years, the average number of thunderstorm days in Heilongjiang province, central and south-central more less the eastern plains; (2)highest probability of thunderstorms across the province in the central and south central areas, the minimum value of the area was located in the east; (3)in the next 50 years, Haerbin, Qiqihaer, Mudanjiang, Daqing, great number of thunderstorm days occurred ≥ 30 years the number of multiple thunderstorms were 9, 7, 6, 4, 8 times, the probability of their values were 18%, 14%, 12%, 8%, 16%.