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中国农学通报 ›› 2011, Vol. 27 ›› Issue (3): 441-444.

所属专题: 农业气象

• 资源 环境 生态 土壤 气象 • 上一篇    下一篇

辽宁旬滚动短期气候预测方法研究及系统建设

王大钧   

  • 收稿日期:2010-07-20 修回日期:2010-08-09 出版日期:2011-02-05 发布日期:2011-02-05
  • 基金资助:

    辽宁省气象局2008年科研项目---辽宁省旬滚动短期气候预测业务系统建设

The Research of Short-term Climate Forecast of Each Ten Days Rolling 30 Days and the System Construction in Liaoning Province

  • Received:2010-07-20 Revised:2010-08-09 Online:2011-02-05 Published:2011-02-05

摘要:

摘要:利用国家气候中心的动力延伸预报产品,采取经验正交函数展开和多元回归相结合的方法,建立逐旬滚动的未来30天的气温和降水预报方程,经过PS评分检验得到较好的预测效果;建立了简洁易操作的系统平台,大大提高了气候预测业务人员的工作效率。

关键词: 农业综合竞争力, 农业综合竞争力, 评价, 东北

Abstract:

As China’s economic development and social progress, the impact of weather disasters on economic and social are more and more extensive and serious. The good results of climate forecast can play a greater role in disaster prevention and mitigation, and by using dynamic climate model results on temperature, precipitation, and other weather elements can effectively improve the prediction accuracy. Based on NCC dynamical climate model outputting products, by combining EOF and multiple regression, temperature and precipitation forecasting equations for 30 days of future which ten days rolling were established. Results showed that good service is achieved in 2007 and 2008 business applications and the PS evaluation score was much better; the system platform which was brief and operability has been developed, so the efficiency of climate forecasting artisan was improved.