Abstract: The tea production increased in recent years in the southeast of Shandong Province, but the single yield volatile. Research on the relationship between climatic condition and tea production is necessary. Using the meteorological data of three stations in 1992-2005 in Rizhao, and linear regression, find out the temperature, precipitation, sunshine, frozen soil and other 12 meteorological factors were significantly related to tea production. The production forecast model of tea is established after gradually return. It’s a multiple regression equation,Y=-972.12+191.39X₁-219.92X₂-37.06X₃+8.06X₄-66.26X₅+3.83X₆+5.07X₇+8.56X₈-0.29X₉-0.05X₁₀+9.71X₁₁+1.68X₁₂, r equal to 0.999987. The average deviation is 5.02% by testing, it shows that’s accurate prediction model.