Abstract:

Meteorological conditions were the main influence factors of pests and diseases of winter wheat, and were closely related to the developmental stages of crops. Especially in the special year, if the influence factors selected by model had more obvious changes than normal years, the differences between the forecast results and the actual results was big, so the forecast model had some limitations. In order to enhance the practicality of forecasting mathematical statistics, historical data for many years should be used and predict methods should be used as many as possible in practice to access to higher forecast accuracy rate. In this paper, the meteorological conditions forecast index of the main pests and diseases of winter wheat (powdery mildew, stripe rust, wheat spider) were analyzed, the meteorological degree forecast model of the main pests and diseases of winter wheat was set up. Through the back testing with the historical data, the rate of backtracking and fitting for the forecast model was above 90%. In a word, the model set up by this method was applied to do the meteorological forecast of the main pests and diseases(stripe rust, powdery mildew, wheat spider) of winter wheat in general years in Shanxi. Key words: Shanxi province; winter wheat; insect pests and diseases; meteorological conditions; forecast model