Abstract:

According to the phenology material of Chinese phenophase observation network in Changchun and the climate material offered by national meteorological center, correlation and stepwise regression analysis and mathematical simulation method were applied to investigate the impact of temperature, precipitation and sunshine on spring phenology of the woody plants during 2003-2010. The author established the simulative models of the flowing dates of 4 kinds of woody plants. The results showed that temperature was the major influence factor in spring phenology, and that precipitation and sunshine influenced spring phenology inconspicuously .The influence of temperature on spring phenology mainly concentrated in the previous 2 months of the spring phenology. With the temperature increasing, the phenophase advanced.The sustained days of spring phenology period was related with January and February temperature, which had a positive correlation and negative correlation with budding and leaf stage, respectively. The numerical fitting of the predicted values and the observed values was better, which showed that people could use the models to forecast the flowing dates for several kinds of woody plants in Changchun.