Abstract:

In order to overall analysis the climatic change and future trends in the last 50 years, providing scientific reference for reasonably utilizing climatic resources and agricultural production, by using linear-trend, Mann-Kendall and rescaled range analysis (R/S) method, the change characteristics and the future trends of the annual average temperature, the annual precipitation and the annual sunshine duration were analyzed in southwestern Shandong Province from 1961 to 2010. The results showed that the temperature increased in the last 50 years with a very significant change rate by 0.16℃ per 10 years, and an abrupt change occurred in 1995, while the Hurst index was 0.77 which indicated that there existed obvious Hurst phenomenon in the future. The annual precipitation was no obvious change, many abrupt changes occurred in the middle of 1980s and the beginning of the 21st century, while the Hurst index was 0.62 which indicated that the trend were great random and would change or remain stable in the future.? The annual sunshine duration decreased with a very significant change rate by 112.05.46 h per 10 years, and an abrupt change occurred in 1985, while the Hurst index was 0.95 which indicated that there reduced obvious Hurst phenomenon in the future. The forecast of climatic change tendency were the temperature continued to increase, annual precipitation shortage and sunshine reduced. In general, the whole study area showed warming and drying trend.