Abstract:

Water environmental carrying capacity (WECC) can estimate the relationship between Water environmental carrying capacity (WECC) can estimate the relationship between social economy and water environment using system dynamics (SD) method which can analysis WECC dynamic and was called ‘policy laboratory’. Based on the local system complex characteristics of water environment in the watershed of Miyun reservoir, SD model and indicator system were constructed, and than it was simulated and predicted for WECC in this area in 2008-2020 under the present condition and different optimization schemes. The simulation results showed that: (1) under the condition of maintaining present development scheme, WECC of the studied area in 2008-2020 would be decreased slowly year after year; (2) The scheme of searching for new and saving present water resources was better than the scheme of controlling wastewater pollution and reducing sewage discharge, and both of them could effectively increase the WECC in studied area. In contrary, WECC in this area would be not fundamentally improved if only transfer water from other regions; (3) The integration of searching for new and saving present water resources with controlling wastewater pollution and reducing sewage discharge would be the most effective way to improve the WECC and the coordinated development of social economy and water environment in the first grade water source protection area, Miyun reservoir, Beijing.