Abstract:

By using the data of wheat yield , temperature, precipitation and sunshine duration from individual main producing region, on the basis of physiological characteristics of wheat，the suitability models about temperature , precipitation and sunshine of wheat were constructed. A dynamical prediction model of wheat yield was created based on the relation between climatic Suitability and wheat yield. Wheat yield was predicted dynamically with the model from 2008to 2010, the results indicate that all the average accuracy of the bumper or poor harvest trend for Wheat yield were 100% and the average accuracy of the actual yield was 95.1%, 95.1% and 95.4% for March 31, April 30 and May 31 respectively. The dynamic prediction mode l has high prediction accuracy and can satisfy the needs of operational services.