Abstract:

In order to predict and evaluate the extreme events of climate change in northeast China under the background of global warming, and provide reference for food production to address the extreme events of climate change. The regional climate model system PRECIS developed by Hadley centre for climate prediction and the research had been used to study the extreme events of climate change response under the baseline and SRES A2 scenario in the northeast China. PRECIS had the ability to simulate the extreme events of climate change in northeast China and their spatial distributions of and details varies with terrain through simulations and compared with observations under the baseline. As the analysis and calculation results under SRES A2 scenario relative to baseline (1961-1990) showed that: a clear change of frequency of climate change extreme events would occur in northeast China. Extremes of cold decrease, extremes of heat increase, and summer days raised obviously with an increase of 50%-400%. Extreme temperature range increased with an increase of 0-5%; Length of growth period varied with geographical features, there was a greater increase in the east and west in the northeast China, but both frost days and consecutive frost days tended to decrease.