Abstract:

In order to serve apple industry development and provide scientific decisions to the development of apple production and marketing for Shaanxi Province, objective and quantitative prediction model of apple production was found. By using meteorological conditions as predictor, which affected apple production, taking non-linear regression model as method, non-linear regression model of meteorological factors for apple yields were established for 5 apple production base counties in Shaanxi Province. The models checking results showed that accuracy rate was over 73%, and the models could accurately reflect the yield. The models were the first time to forecast apple yield, and they were clear thinking and operable, which could provide a reference to other provinces to forecast apple yield, or to forecast the yield for other economic fruits.