Abstract: In order to recognize the risk of nature disaster on crop yield, the yield of four crops within 12 countries during 1953 to 2011 had analyzed. In this study 5a liner moving average model was used to calculate the meteorological trend yield, the coefficient of variation, the average annual yield reduction rate, the probability of risk and the integrated risk index, the risk on crop yield had analyze. The results showed that the risk index of grain yield was the minimum and sunflower was the maximum in the four corps. Jungar Banner’s Risk indexes was higher than other district. There was no significant regional difference in the minimum risk indexes of four crops. The probability of yield increase district was more than decrease one.