Welcome to Chinese Agricultural Science Bulletin,

Chinese Agricultural Science Bulletin ›› 2013, Vol. 29 ›› Issue (23): 180-193.doi: 10.11924/j.issn.1000-6850.2013-0419

Special Issue: 小麦 农业气象

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Multi-time Scales Analysis of Climate Variation in the Period of Winter Wheat Growing in Eastern He’nan Farming Region

  

  • Received:2013-02-16 Revised:2013-03-13 Online:2013-08-15 Published:2013-08-15

Abstract: In order to study the climate change characteristics and forecast the climate change trend during the growth period of winter wheat in eastern He’nan farming areas, temperature variation and evolution trend in eastern He’nan farming areas under the background of global warming can provide the necessary reference for agricultural development. Using multi-method of Mann-Kendal analysis, regression analysis, 5 years sliding average and Morlet wavelet, the author studied temperature variation facts, trends and variation cycle based on 5 meteorological stations in eastern He’nan areas. The results showed that: temperature warming greatly range from October to May in the next year with an increase of mutation year, trend of precipitation was not obvious and there was no mutation year. Shock period of average temperature and precipitation range from October to next year May in the past 60 years had complex variation characters with a nested structure on multiple time scales. The shock cycle characteristics of temperature and precipitation trends in the recent 60 had complex nested structure. Annual temperature was obviously increasing, especially in the last nearly 20 year, and it showed a continued warming trend with a small alternation of heating and cooling in the next period of time. Impact of climate warming on agricultural production had advantages and disadvantages, warming in winter and spring could enhance the yield of winter wheat, and also aggravate the pest and frost drought disasters occurred at the same time.