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Chinese Agricultural Science Bulletin ›› 2014, Vol. 30 ›› Issue (8): 82-88.doi: 10.11924/j.issn.1000-6850.2013-1236

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Analysis of Temporal and Spatial Variation & Driving Factors of Grain Production in Shanxi Province

  

  • Received:2013-05-02 Revised:2013-05-28 Online:2014-03-15 Published:2014-03-15

Abstract: In order to improve the overall grain production capacity and promote sustainable agriculture development in Shanxi Province, based on the Shanxi Province socio-economic statistics from 1978 to 2011, and the author analyzed the grain dynamic changes and regional differences in the past 34 years in Shanxi Province, then principal component analysis was used to the impact factors of grain production in Shanxi Province. The results showed that: (1) from 1978 to 2011, the characteristics of the dynamic change about the grain production in Shanxi Province mainly performed in two aspects. On one hand, it displayed a significantly growth in grain production; on the other hand, the curve line of total grain production and the changing trends of per capita grain production and output per average of grain production were basically alike. The province’s total grain output increased from 7.069 million tons in 1978 to 11.93 million tons in 2011, output per average of grain increased from 1915 kg to 3629 kg during 1978-2011. (2) Grain production of various regions showed obvious space difference in Shanxi Province, per capita grain showed that Piedmont plain and basin were significantly higher than those arid mountain area, grain increase rate by degrees showed that southern grain main production area faster that the mountainous area and mining cities. (3) 4 major components of the impacts on food production were socio-economic development level, the level of agricultural science and technology, economic efficiency of agriculture, natural disasters. The contribution rate of the four main components of food production in Shanxi Province were 44.47%, 19.58%, 13.27% and 10.69%, the output per average of grain, total power of agricultural machinery, agricultural of chemical fertilizers, rural electricity consumption, fiscal spending on agriculture were the main factors in the first principal components. The correlation coefficients were as high as 0.85, 0.94, 0.97, 0.95 and 0.71.