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Chinese Agricultural Science Bulletin ›› 2014, Vol. 30 ›› Issue (28): 315-320.doi: 10.11924/j.issn.1000-6850.2014-1016

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Potential distribution of Scirtothrips aurantii in china and the world as predicted by MaxEnt

  

  • Received:2014-04-09 Revised:2014-04-09 Accepted:2014-08-06 Online:2014-10-15 Published:2014-10-15

Abstract: Scirtothrips aurantii is an important pest of citrus and object of cosmopolitan plants quarantine. Determination of the potential geographical distribution of Scirtothrips aurantii is an important factor for effectively controlling the spreading of this pest. In this study, niche model MaxEnt and Arc-Gis were applied to analyze and predict the suitable distribution area of Scirtothrips aurantii, ROC was used to evaluate the prediction model and the prediction results, and Jackknife analysis was made to analyze the most important environmental factors affecting the occurrence of Scirtothrips aurantii. The results showed that, south of Africa, mid-east of southern America, mid of Mexico, east coast of Australia, south of India, mid of southeastern Asia and Yemen were the main suitable areas for Scirtothrips aurantii in the world. In China, the high risk areas were in Hainan and the mid of Yunnan, the secondary risk areas were in Guizhou, Guangxi, Guangdong, southeast of Fujian and south of Sichuan. The important environmental factors affecting the occurrence of Scirtothrips aurantii were temperature seasonality, isothermally and temperature annual range.