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Chinese Agricultural Science Bulletin ›› 2015, Vol. 31 ›› Issue (15): 265-274.doi: 10.11924/j.issn.1000-6850.2014-1318

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Grain Production Fluctuation Analysis and Policy Suggestions in Anhui Province

  

  • Received:2014-05-07 Revised:2015-05-09 Accepted:2014-10-16 Online:2015-06-02 Published:2015-06-02

Abstract: In order to analyze the grain production situation in Anhui Province and provide reference for grain production policy-making, guarantee grain safety of Anhui and the whole country, the general situation of total grain yield, paddy rice, maize, wheat in Anhui Province during 1978-2012 was studied, and the fluctuation of grain production was deeply analyzed and discussed by the method of residue. The results showed that grain total yield, paddy rice, wheat and maize yield increased at different degrees in Anhui Province. With the change in people’s diet structure, the proportion of paddy rice declined, while the proportion of wheat and maize yield increased in total grain output; the fluctuations of total grain yield and three major grain crops paddy rice, maize and wheat in Anhui Province exist common features: frequent fluctuations, short cycle, large amplitude, all belong to the classical fluctuation. The fluctuation period of total grain yield in Anhui Province is most frequent with average period length of 2.81; among three grain crops, the fluctuation period of wheat yield is most frequent with average period of 2.88, and the fluctuation period of paddy rice is the shortest of 3.77. The fluctuation amplitude of maize, wheat, paddy rice and total grain yield are 61.89%, 40.24%, 23.56%, 19.77%, respectively. The wave trough negative growth of total grain yield, paddy rice yield, wheat yield and maize yield are 9, 9, 8, 10, respectively, accounting for 82%, 100%, 77.78% and 100% of total cycles. Combined with the grain production fluctuations, several suggestions for guaranteeing stable grain production, growth, reducing fluctuation were put forward from aspects of cultivated land, water resource, science and technology, policy and labor force.