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Chinese Agricultural Science Bulletin ›› 2015, Vol. 31 ›› Issue (4): 280-285.doi: 10.11924/j.issn.1000-6850.2014-2435

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Structure, Trends and Policy Needs Analysis of Grain’s Supply and Demand in China

Wang Yang, Yu Zhigang   

  1. (Economics and Management College, Northeast Agriculture University, Harbin 150030)
  • Received:2014-09-08 Revised:2014-12-23 Accepted:2014-12-25 Online:2015-03-20 Published:2015-03-20

Abstract: On the basis of analysis of food supply and demand, we established an ARIMA-GRNN model to forecast the future of food supply and demand in the short-term trend. The forecast results show that: China's grain market supply is no problem in short-term, but in long-term supply and demand situation is not optimistic. The yield-pull mode is not sustainable in the technology development bottlenecks. Therefore, the focus of macroeconomic regulation and control of future food should be transferred from the ‘supply side’ to the ‘demand side’, and mediation grain structural problems should be taken seriously.