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Chinese Agricultural Science Bulletin ›› 2015, Vol. 31 ›› Issue (25): 259-268.doi: 10.11924/j.issn.1000-6850.casb15030094

Special Issue: 农业气象

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Statistical Characteristics and Numerical Forecast Verification of Maximum and Minimum Temperature in Dalian Area

  

  • Received:2015-03-12 Revised:2015-06-01 Accepted:2015-06-12 Online:2015-09-23 Published:2015-09-23

Abstract: The paper aims to improve the accuracy of temperature forecast in Dalian Area, the frequency distribution of the occurrence time of the maximum and minimum temperature in different seasons were analyzed using automatic station temperature data of Dalian Area in 2003-2012 and the automatic station temperature data, the products of ECMWF, SCMOC, SLMOF, T639, STOBJ, WRF and SPCC in 2013 were used to test temperature forecast in Dalian Area, the time span of forecast was 24 hours. The results showed that the frequency distribution of the occurrence time of the maximum and minimum temperature was a bimodal. The maximum (minimum) temperature appeared at 14:00 and 21:00 (5:00- 8:00 and 21:00). For temperature forecast, SCMOC had better forecast effect than other products in the south of Dalian Area, and ECMWF performed better than others in the north of Dalian Area. The correct rate of the maximum temperature was always smaller than that of the minimum temperature.