Welcome to Chinese Agricultural Science Bulletin,

Chinese Agricultural Science Bulletin ›› 2015, Vol. 31 ›› Issue (20): 195-201.doi: 10.11924/j.issn.1000-6850.casb15030204

Special Issue: 小麦 农业气象

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Establishment of Freezing Injury Risk Evaluation Index for Winter Wheat in Jiangsu Province

Li Yachun1, Wu Hongyan1, He Jinfang2, Wang Youmei2, Gao Ping1   

  1. (1Jiangsu Province Meteorological Bureau, Nanjing 210008;2Jiangsu Jintan Meteorological Bureau, Jintan Jiangsu 213200)
  • Received:2015-03-25 Revised:2015-07-06 Accepted:2015-04-13 Online:2015-07-28 Published:2015-07-28

Abstract: Based on the meteorological and agro-meteorological observation data and winter wheat freezing injury data and winter wheat yields in Jiangsu Province from 1960 to 2010, the main factors causing freezing injury was screened and freezing injury index sequences were established. According to the risk analysis principle, combined with the index and winter wheat yield reduction rate, the winter wheat freezing injury risk estimation model was established by the grey correlation method. The freezing injury risk estimation index was applied to determine the risk grades of wheat freezing injury of different regions in Jiangsu Province and evaluate their risks. The high risks of such freezing injury mainly occurred in the north part along Huaihe River and irrigation canal and northeast of Yancheng, where the risk value was more than 50% and the possible yields loss was 3%-6%. The low risks mainly occurred in the most of south part along Huaihe River and irrigation canal, where the risk value was lower than 35% and would lead to small loss. And the moderate risks mainly occurred in the?transition zone between the above two areas and the possible yields loss was 0-3%. The results could reflect the historical and actual situation and used as the basis for the evaluation and prevention of winter wheat freezing disaster in Jiangsu Province.