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Chinese Agricultural Science Bulletin ›› 2015, Vol. 31 ›› Issue (29): 235-240.doi: 10.11924/j.issn.1000-6850.casb15040186

Special Issue: 农业气象

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Risk Assessment of Rainstorm and Flood Disasters in Flood Season in the Northern Foot of Qingling Mountain Based on Information Diffusion Method

  

  • Received:2015-04-26 Revised:2015-06-30 Accepted:2015-07-06 Online:2015-10-28 Published:2015-10-28

Abstract: In order to scienticly support the disaster prevention and reduction work in leisure tourism area of northern foot of Qingling Mountain, using the data of daily precipitation including 22 meteorological stations in flood season (from May to October) during 1976-2010 in the northern foot of Qingling Mountain, the changing climate characteristics and the risk of rainstorm and flood disasters in flood season were analyzed by the methods of anomaly analysis, Mann-Kendall test and information diffusion theory. Results showed that regional precipitation and rainstorm frequency of the northern foot of Qingling Mountain in flood season had obvious geographical differents, which decrease from south to north by both, and the high value center of regional precipitation and rainstorm frequency all located in central and south of southern Shaanxi; The regional precipitation and rainstorm frequency of the northern foot of Qingling Mountain in flood season increased during 1980-1989 firstly, decreased significantly during 1990-1999, grew again since entering the new century, and appeared an abrupt decline in 1989 and 1991 respectively; With the increasing of risk level, the probability of occurrence of rainstorm and flood disasters appeared to decrease. The risk of rainstorm and flood disasters in the northern foot of Qingling Mountain in flood season showed a increasing trend form north to south. The north of Hanzhong and the west of Ankang were the high value area of disaster risk.

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