Abstract: In order to forecast grain production in advance, the authors used the actual monitoring data of the last frost date, average temperature, ≥10℃ accumulated temperature and unit area yield of grain from 1961 to 2011, adopted the statistical correlation and trend calculation methods to analyze the characteristics of decadal and interannual change of the last frost date. The results showed that: with global climate warming after the 1980s, the advance rate of the last frost date was accelerated, the correlations were in anti-phase between the last frost date and the annual average air temperature as well as the average air temperature in May, the correlation coefficient was - 0.63 between the last frost date and the average air temperature in May. The correlations between the earlier or later last frost date and the ≥10℃ accumulated air temperature in crop growing season were analyzed, the correlations were in anti-phase obviously. The correlation between the last frost date and the crop yield was also analyzed, the correlation coefficient was -0.58. 65% of years with earlier last frost date had grain production increase, and 35% years with decreased grain production were years with serious drought or flood. In conclusion, under the background of climate warming in Heilongjiang Province, the probability of grain production increase will be significant with earlier last frost date and the increase of ≥10℃ accumulated air temperature in crop growing season.