Research Progress of Extended Range Forecast of Strong Wind Over the Sea

doi:10.11924/j.issn.1000-6850.casb15110021

Abstract

Abstract: Strong wind over the sea is a major disastrous weather for marine industry. Extended-range forecast of this kind of disastrous weather is a challenge. There are six main methods of extended-range forecast, including dynamic extended method, low frequency oscillation method, empirical wave propagation method, mathematic statistics method, climate disturbed decomposition method and ensemble forecast method. And numerical model in dynamic extended forecast and MJO in low frequency oscillation method are the most common methods. In the age of big data, ensemble forecast based on numerical model and big data analysis will be the main orientation of extended-range forecast in the future. All the six methods can be used to predict the disastrous weather such as the strong wind over the sea. The researchers tend to trace the source using climate disturbed decomposition and low frequency map in the low frequency oscillation method to make extended-range forecast.

Shang Shun,Wu Mengmeng,Qin Yinghao,Wang Zhanggui and Wei Lixin. Research Progress of Extended Range Forecast of Strong Wind Over the Sea[J]. Chinese Agricultural Science Bulletin, 2016, 32(4): 185-190.

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