Welcome to Chinese Agricultural Science Bulletin,

Chinese Agricultural Science Bulletin ›› 2016, Vol. 32 ›› Issue (18): 165-169.doi: 10.11924/j.issn.1000-6850.casb15110023

Special Issue: 水稻 农业气象

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Monitoring and Forecasting Warning of Meteorological Grade for Rice Planthopper in Guangxi

Meng Cuili1, He Yan2, Chen Zhongyun3, Long Mengling4, Xie Maochang4   

  1. (1Agro-meteorology Station of Wuhan, Wuhan 430040;2Guangxi Meteorological Disaster Mitigation Institute/Remote Sensing Application and Experiment Station of National Satellite Meteorological Center, Nanning 530022;3Climate Center of Guizhou, Guiyang 550022; 4Plant Protection Station of Guangxi, Nanning 530022)
  • Received:2015-11-03 Revised:2015-11-24 Accepted:2015-11-25 Online:2016-06-28 Published:2016-06-28

Abstract: Rice planthopper is one of the most serious pest affected rice in Guangxi, its occurrence and development has very close relationship with meteorological conditions. In order to explore the relationship between meteorological conditions and the occurrence degree of rice planthopper, forecasting and early warning of the rice planthopper occurrence degree must be carried out, the data in 1991-2008 from 64 monitoring stations for agricultural pests in Guangxi and meteorological stations corresponding to their counties and cities were used in the paper. Based on single-factor correlation analysis between rice planthopper’s occurrence grades and different meteorological factors, meteorological factors that were biological significance and strong indication had been found as modeling alternative factors. The method of multiple linear regression was adopted to build monitoring and warning model at meteorological grade for rice planthopper’s occurrence degree. Through history back substitution test and forecast verification for independent samples, the results by the historical test showed that: the average correctness rate of forecast was 89% by comparing meteorological grade with actual grade; the correctness rate of model values was 75% compared with actually occurred for forecast verification, and overall forecast effect was good, which could provide scientific decision-making for the rice planthopper prevention.