Welcome to Chinese Agricultural Science Bulletin,

Chinese Agricultural Science Bulletin ›› 2016, Vol. 32 ›› Issue (23): 165-170.doi: 10.11924/j.issn.1000-6850.casb16030108

Special Issue: 农业气象

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Forecast of Maximum Temperature in Guizhou

  

  • Received:2016-03-14 Revised:2016-07-08 Accepted:2016-05-16 Online:2016-08-10 Published:2016-08-10

Abstract: It is a tough issue to forecast the maximum temperature forecast in Guizhou, and the forecast quality was not satisfied in recent years. Based on the conventional temperature forecast data and ground observation data from forecasting centers, the author carried out the multi- model ensemble forecast for the maximum temperature. The results showed that: the multi-model ensemble forecast could effectively improve forecast accuracy, and obviously reduce the forecast RMSE of hourly forecast in 120 hours from 1 January, 2013 to 30 April, 2014. This technique had a considerable advantage over the best single model forecast (ECMWF) and the ensemble mean (EMN). The study could improve the maximum temperature forecast in Guizhou and provide more effective guidance for local meteorological forecast and decision-making.